Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.